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A closer look

Plumber

AI can help a plumber with the paperwork. It still can't get under your sink.

Almost all of the work is measuring, cutting, joining and fitting pipes on site, which no AI tool can do. Reading the plans is the only task it gets anywhere near.

85 / 100

Strongly holds up against AI

Most of this job still needs an actual human. AI would mostly be making the tea.

Not the odds you keep your job. It's how much of the everyday work still needs a person, out of 100.

← Robot's turf Human's turf →

The ILO's official verdict: Not Exposed

1 (top of the class) of the 20 jobs up close

Why this score?

The ILO rated each task in this job for how much of it AI could do. They average 15.2 out of 100, so the job holds up at 100 − 15.2 = 84.8.

ILO group “Not Exposed”: None of this job's tasks scored high enough to count.

AI helps JSA 2025
59
Usually good news: more of the work gets quicker without the job going away.
AI takes over JSA 2025
15
This is what most people mean by “exposed”. We keep it apart from helping on purpose.
Hands-on O*NET 31.0
72.1
Software can't do hands-on work, but robots might one day. How far they've got isn't on this site, because nobody measures it well enough yet.

from the source Working Paper 140, Generative AI and Jobs 2025 index O*NET 31.0 Our Gen AI Transition (Gen AI Capacity Study) September 2025 detailed data release data 0.8-observed-use

Man v Bot · compare

Who holds up better?

Plumber 85

v

Go on, try your partner's job. Or your sibling's. We won't tell.

Man v Bot

Where the bot helps, and where the human wins

Bot

What AI takes

The routine stuff. You may not miss it.

  • Quoting, scheduling and parts ordering.
  • Diagnosing a fault from a description or a photograph.
  • Compliance paperwork and certification records.

Man

What people still do better

Judgement, trust and skilled hands. Hard to download.

  • Working in a space that was never designed to be worked in.
  • Deciding what is actually wrong when the symptom is three rooms away.
  • Being the person a stranger lets into their home at nine at night.

Both

What's arriving

New work that only exists because the AI does.

  • Installing and maintaining heat pumps, greywater and metering systems.
  • Reading sensor data from systems that report their own faults.
  • Retrofit work driven by regulation rather than breakage.

Written by a human, from the task data. Yes, we see the irony. Read it as one person's take.

Meet your two rivals

They're not the same machine. AI software can only reach the parts of a job done on a screen or in words. A chatbot can't climb a ladder. A robot might, one day, if it doesn't fall off.

The AI

Lives in a screen. Never had to fix a boiler.

Threat level: Low

15 could do without you

It could take over very little of the work on its own. It could help with 59 of 100.

The robot

The wildcard. Has hands, still working out stairs.

How much it matters here: Higher

72 how hands-on

Most of this job needs hands, a body or turning up. That's robot territory, and nobody measures how far robots have got well enough to give you a number. We won't make one up.

So could a robot do the physical part?

More fine handwork, and more time in cramped or awkward spots, than a typical hands-on job. That is exactly what machines find hardest: they do best in tidy, predictable places.

Robots hate fiddly work in awkward spaces. On that measure, this job scores 54 out of 100. The higher it is, the longer the robot waits.

54 How fiddly
and cramped

Kind of hands-on work Hands-on, fiddly work in tight spaces

The small print

It isn't a robot score, and nothing on this page is. Nobody measures how far robots have got well enough to put a number on it. This is the closest thing we have: how much fiddly handwork and cramped, awkward work the job takes, which is what Frey and Osborne found hardest for machines.

The numbers come straight from the US job database's entry for Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters. Its wider group, Plumbers and pipe fitters, lands in the same place.

finger skill 44.6 · hand skill 46.4 · cramped spaces 70 · hands-on 72.1 · caring 2.54 of 7 · rule: hands-on 50+ · fiddly 39.4+

from the source O*NET 31.0 data 0.8-observed-use measures chosen by Frey & Osborne (2017) · the grouping is a sorting, not a measurement

So, should plumbers be worried?

Short answer: not really. Put the kettle on.

Not about AI. Most of a plumber's day is physical: measuring, cutting, joining and fitting pipes in spaces nobody designed to be worked in. AI tools can take on the quoting, scheduling and certificates, which frees up time. The bigger change is new work: heat pumps, smart meters and retrofits driven by regulation.

Worth remembering: we score tasks, not jobs. When AI takes on a task, the job usually reshuffles around it rather than vanishing. Bank tellers survived the cash machine. The job just got more chatty.

Where this job could lead

Fancy a rematch?

Put plumbers up against another job, then send the result to someone who needs a little humbling.

Where this page's numbers come from